Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:18:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
DE 0xdec2…b015 politics 784 markets active 0h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 153d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,087 (+5%) realized +$6,465 · open +$622
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate65%505W / 270L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$2,060now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,213
7 days+$2,010
14 days+$4,556
30 days+$4,894
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% +$3,552
world 22% +$655
other 16% +$493
sports 6% −$127
crypto 5% +$1,458
tech 2% +$27
finance 2% −$32
economics 1% +$236
culture 1% +$16
weather 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.9% -10.4% 52% 22% +6.6%
≤30d 125 +27.1% +15.0% 57% 28% +5.6%
≤90d 396 +15.1% +4.1% 75% 22% -4.8%
all 775 +11.8% +1.1% 65% 22% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.1% 22% -5.7%
10% -8.5% 15% -14.8%
15% -17.4% 12% -23.0%
20% -25.5% 11% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$31 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$2,060
Realized+$6,465
Unrealized+$622
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses505 / 270
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions9
Markets (closed)775 / 784
History coverage154d ⚠
Avg bet$175
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 775 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 24¢ $154 $613 +$458 (+297%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $445 $492 +$47 (+11%)
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? No 30¢ 32¢ $238 $260 +$22 (+9%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $110 $205 +$95 (+86%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes $100 $164 +$64 (+64%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $140 $130 −$10 (-7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes $52 $49 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 16 $64 +$1 +2%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,254 +$151 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $496 +$2,137 +431%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 15 $53 +$16 +30%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 15 $180 −$180 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $72 +$126 +175%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $76 −$76 -100%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $481 +$19 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $111 −$13 -11%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5,208 +$151 +3%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 13 $513 +$7 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -87%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $11 −$10 -92%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $31 −$25 -81%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 12 $18 +$2 +10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1,151 −$151 -13%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 11 $74 +$5 +7%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 11 $329 −$30 -9%
Will Petro mention Hitler again by June 30? Jun 09 $985 +$15 +2%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $8 +$7 +96%
Will John Ternus say "Personal" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on Ju Jun 09 $228 +$2 +1%
Will John Ternus say "Developer" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on J Jun 09 $189 +$21 +11%
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $2,109 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $0 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 08 $69 +$8 +11%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 08 $275 −$90 -33%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $49 +$799 +1616%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $570 +$30 +5%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $658 +$78 +12%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $1,112 +$66 +6%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $610 $0 +0%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $76 −$19 -25%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $50 −$41 -82%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $31 +$47 +152%
Will Trump praise Vladimir Putin by June 30? Jun 05 $218 +$230 +106%
Will Trump say "Fossil" or "Fuel" during coal announcement? Jun 04 $223 +$5 +2%
Will Trump say "Coal" 20+ times during coal announcement? Jun 04 $270 +$7 +3%
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Jun 04 $1 $0 -3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $4,832 +$1,403 +29%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $180 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Hottest Nation" this week? Jun 03 $3 +$2 +45%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $111 +$12 +11%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 -20%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $65 25m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $64 28m
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $122 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $7 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $1 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $0 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $1 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $1 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $22 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $2 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $1 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $0 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $6 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $25 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $28 14h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $238 14h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $39 15h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $556 16h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $173 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $84 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $507 16h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $200 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $505 16h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $160 17h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $88 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $26 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $37 17h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $543 18h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $411 19h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $479 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,060.49 · official $2,060.49 (match) · 3500 history records