Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:47:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DE 0xdec4…24d0 crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%20W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 20 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.1%
≤90d 20 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.1%
all 20 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 0% -8.1%
10% -16.9% 0% -16.9%
15% -24.9% 0% -24.9%
20% -32.3% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses20 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage6d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records