Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:04:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xdec4…046f sports 259 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,035 (-15%) realized −$1,032 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%79W / 177L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day26.4pace
Fees−$118est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$694
7 days−$694
14 days−$1,301
30 days−$1,301
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$633
other 18% −$673
crypto 2% +$16
world 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -49.2% -54.0% 24% 24% -47.4%
≤30d 256 -18.2% -26.0% 31% 30% -27.3%
≤90d 256 -18.2% -26.0% 31% 30% -27.3%
all 256 -18.2% -26.0% 31% 30% -27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.0% 30% -27.3%
10% ← realistic here -33.1% 29% -34.3%
15% -39.6% 27% -40.6%
20% -45.5% 21% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$25 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$1,032
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses79 / 177
Est. fees paid−$118
Open positions3
Markets (closed)256 / 259
History coverage14d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day26.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson Jun 25 $25 +$28 +109%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Bianca Andreesc Jun 25 $35 +$15 +42%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Otto Virtanen Jun 25 $51 +$31 +62%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Heather Watson Jun 25 $32 +$9 +28%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Robin Montgomer Jun 25 $36 −$35 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys Jun 25 $36 −$35 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Tereza Valentova Jun 25 $36 −$35 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym Jun 25 $46 +$59 +129%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Alina Charaeva Jun 25 $18 +$8 +42%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Dusan Lajovic Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Tomas Barrios Jun 25 $18 −$18 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Tarvet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 25 $23 −$22 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 25 $84 −$32 -38%
ITF Maanshan: Marianna Shikhanova vs Anna Snigireva Jun 25 $29 −$29 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Wushuang Zheng vs JiaYi Wang Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yi Zhou vs Billy Harris Jun 25 $58 +$64 +110%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva Jun 25 $51 +$85 +167%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $11 −$10 -93%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals Jun 25 $27 −$27 -100%
Akram Afif: 1+ goals Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Frantzdy Pierrot: 2+ shots Jun 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Neil El Aynaoui: 1+ assists Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $49 −$49 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Frantzdy Pierrot: 1+ goals Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 25 $28 −$28 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Wilson Isidor: 1+ assists Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $60 −$60 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $59 −$59 -100%
Scott McTominay: 1+ assists Jun 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 24 $3 −$2 -58%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $26 +$59 +232%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $34 +$60 +177%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 24 $15 +$21 +139%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 24 $20 +$49 +240%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Jun 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $34 +$14 +40%
Harry Kane: 1+ assists Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ assists Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 24 $52 −$52 -100%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 24 $47 −$47 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Ghana? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Bianca Andreesc SELL Bianca Andreescu 96¢ $50 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Otto Virtanen SELL Otto Virtanen 100¢ $82 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Heather Watson SELL Maria Timofeeva 92¢ $41 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson BUY Karolina Muchova 47¢ $25 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Robin Montgomer BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 25¢ $36 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys BUY Quentin Halys 13¢ $36 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Tereza Valentova BUY Tereza Valentova 25¢ $36 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Heather Watson BUY Maria Timofeeva 71¢ $32 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Bianca Andreesc BUY Bianca Andreescu 67¢ $35 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 61¢ $51 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym SELL Roman Safiullin 100¢ $105 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Dusan Lajovic 66¢ $51 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Tomas Barrios BUY Tomas Barrios 13¢ $18 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Alina Charaeva BUY Polina Kudermetova 70¢ $18 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Tarvet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis 14¢ $23 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Tristan Schoolkate $33 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Tristan Schoolkate SELL Nicolas Mejia 92¢ $17 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Tristan Schoolkate SELL Nicolas Mejia 83¢ $111 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yi Zhou vs Billy Harris SELL Billy Harris 88¢ $122 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Tristan Schoolkate SELL Nicolas Mejia 88¢ $10 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Tristan Schoolkate SELL Nicolas Mejia 88¢ $3 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym BUY Roman Safiullin 43¢ $46 6h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva SELL Ethan Quinn 90¢ $32 7h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva SELL Ethan Quinn 90¢ $6 7h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva SELL Ethan Quinn 90¢ $94 7h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva SELL Ethan Quinn 90¢ $4 7h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yi Zhou vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 41¢ $58 7h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Nicolas Mejia 30¢ $51 7h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 26¢ $51 7h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva BUY Ethan Quinn 33¢ $51 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.17 · official $21.17 (match) · 593 history records