Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:47:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DE 0xdec5…57e7 crypto 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate24%13W / 42L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$415per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$3
sports 2% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
politics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 44 +3.2% -6.6% 27% 5% -9.5%
all 55 +4.4% -5.6% 24% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 5% -9.5%
10% -14.6% 5% -18.2%
15% -22.9% 5% -26.1%
20% -30.4% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$501) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×10.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.21 per $1 lost it wins $3.21
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses13 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage97d
Avg bet$415
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $114 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $498 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? Jun 03 $498 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $499 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $499 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? May 31 $499 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? May 30 $498 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? May 30 $498 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 26 $498 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 25 $498 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? May 24 $498 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 21 $498 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 20 $498 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19? May 19 $498 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 18 $498 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 8? May 08 $498 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5? May 05 $500 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 19? Apr 19 $500 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $500 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 on April 15? Apr 16 $499 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 15? Apr 15 $499 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,650 on April 14? Apr 15 $499 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $499 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks make the NHL Playoffs? Apr 14 $12 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on April 13? Apr 14 $485 $0 -0%
Will "Arirang - BTS" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of Apr Apr 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $483 $0 -0%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA seaso Apr 13 $479 $0 -0%
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the third-most seat Apr 12 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on April 11? Apr 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $501 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 3? Apr 03 $501 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $501 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $501 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $501 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $501 $0 -0%
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed by March 31? Apr 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $501 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 31? Mar 31 $501 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 29? Mar 29 $501 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 28? Mar 28 $501 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $501 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $501 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $501 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $501 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $114 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $114 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $114 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $114 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $114 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $114 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? SELL Yes 100¢ $499 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $498 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? SELL Yes 100¢ $498 25d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $498 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? SELL Yes 100¢ $498 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $499 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? SELL Yes 100¢ $499 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $499 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $499 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $499 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $499 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $498 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $498 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $498 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $498 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $497 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $498 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $498 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $498 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $498 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $498 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $498 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $498 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $498 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.22 · official $0.00 · 153 history records