Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:35:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xdec5…fe93 world 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 322d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate30%14W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$1
14 days+$8
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$6
politics 25% −$1
other 11% −$11
sports 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.5% 33% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 19 +0.9% -8.7% 37% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 19 +0.9% -8.7% 37% 0% -8.8%
all 46 -1.0% -10.4% 30% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -10.0%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses14 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage322d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $48 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $42 −$3 -6%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $27 +$2 +7%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $46 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $48 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $45 +$4 +10%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $55 +$5 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $45 −$1 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $40 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $197 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $41 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $2 $0 -6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $2 $0 +9%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $42 −$1 -3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $42 −$1 -1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 22 $11 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2025? Aug 20 $14 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Aug 20 $3 $0 -9%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 20 $59 $0 +0%
Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 20 $28 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 19 $26 $0 -1%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 17 $2 $0 -1%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in August? Aug 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ben Griffin win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship? Aug 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Aug 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released on August 14? Aug 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Brian Campbell be the first round leader at the 2025 FedEx St. Ju Aug 07 $50 −$11 -22%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 07 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 06 $49 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025? Aug 05 $4 −$1 -25%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 05 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $9 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $39 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $48 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $12 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $21 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $11 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $18 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $23 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $8 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $40 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $48 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $5 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $2 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $40 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $2 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 61¢ $9 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 60¢ $35 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $33 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $32 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 170 history records