Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:12:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xdec5…5087 other 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$49 (-6%) realized −$48 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%25W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$116
14 days−$31
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$34
other 34% −$60
sports 13% +$9
world 2% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -38.4% -44.3% 36% 33% -25.6%
≤30d 53 -2.2% -11.5% 47% 45% -13.2%
≤90d 53 -2.2% -11.5% 47% 45% -13.2%
all 53 -2.2% -11.5% 47% 45% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 45% -13.2%
10% -20.0% 42% -21.5%
15% -27.7% 40% -29.1%
20% -34.8% 28% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$48
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses25 / 28
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)53 / 56
History coverage14d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 58¢ 52¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-11%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 52¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 27 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 27 $51 −$21 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$34 +129%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $50 +$2 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 +$7 +143%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$25 +243%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$17 +109%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$7 +344%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$5 +238%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$6 +180%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$10 +199%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 +$7 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 17h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 17h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 17h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 96¢ $50 41h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 41h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 42h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 42h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 4d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.28 · official $35.78 (match) · 107 history records