Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:02:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DE 0xdec8…1787 world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$62 (+6%) realized +$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate47%16W / 18L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$2
other 12% +$56
crypto 5% $0
politics 5% +$1
culture 4% $0
sports 2% $0
finance 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.2% -8.4% 75% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 67% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 14 +3.3% -6.5% 57% 14% -9.0%
all 34 +11.7% +1.1% 47% 9% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.1% 9% -4.0%
10% -8.6% 6% -13.2%
15% -17.4% 6% -21.6%
20% -25.5% 3% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.87 per $1 lost it wins $8.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses16 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage278d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $44 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $4 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 19 $83 +$1 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $164 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $70 +$4 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $16 −$1 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $84 +$2 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $49 −$5 -11%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $82 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $6 +$2 +40%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $66 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 20 $40 −$2 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? May 20 $6 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $6 +$1 +13%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Feb 21 $16 $0 +2%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $17 +$55 +335%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 13 $7 $0 +3%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 22 $8 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 22 $8 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 22 $25 +$1 +6%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 16 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $12 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $30 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $44 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 16h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $84 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $15 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $68 45h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $22 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $62 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $9 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $73 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $23 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $43 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $17 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $83 3d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 25d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $26 27d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $49 27d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 27d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $83 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $6 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $35 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $32 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $70 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 23¢ $13 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $16 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 91¢ $28 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.83 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records