Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:46:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DE
0xdec8…933c
crypto · 89 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$18 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$14 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$46
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses35 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)71 / 89
History coverage102d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 18 History 71 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-1%)
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 85¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 90¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Jordan finish last in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 77¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Yes 57¢ 12¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-78%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 66¢ 22¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-67%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Yes 55¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-86%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-81%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-83%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -69%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $1 $0 +22%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2 $0 -4%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $4 $0 -2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $7 $0 -7%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$4 +398%
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? Jun 05 $1 $0 -5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$1 -45%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in June? Jun 02 $3 $0 +6%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 01 $1 $0 -22%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 30 $1 $0 +36%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026? May 30 $1 $0 +10%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 17 $2 $0 +6%
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? May 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 17 $1 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 31 $6 +$3 +42%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 31 $15 $0 -0%
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $5 −$4 -81%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs MOUZ NXT (BO5) - European Pro League Series 5 P Mar 12 $1 $0 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Mar 10 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Mar 10 $10 −$3 -30%
ECB rate hike in 2026? Mar 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Iran" 5+ times during Monday press conference? Mar 10 $1 $0 +12%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FaZe (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 09 $1 $0 +49%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 09 $10 −$2 -20%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Mar 09 $4 $0 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 09 $2 +$1 +35%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Mar 08 $7 $0 +1%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10? Mar 08 $1 $0 +4%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 08 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? Mar 08 $2 $0 +18%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 08 $5 $0 +2%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 08 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9AM ET Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
GPT-5.4 released by March 5? Mar 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 07 $2 −$1 -49%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 07 $2 +$1 +53%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 07 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 30% −$3
finance 27% −$5
crypto 20% −$4
world 13% −$5
economics 3% $0
tech 3% −$2
sports 2% +$1
politics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $1 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 1h
Will Jordan finish last in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St SELL Yes 75¢ $0 1h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 78¢ $1 1h
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $2 1h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $2 1h
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $5 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $1 41h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 41h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 41h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 2d
Will Jordan finish last in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 77¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? SELL No 69¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 2d
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $7 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -29.6% -36.3% 22% 11% -23.7%
≤30d 23 +8.6% -1.7% 57% 22% -5.0%
≤90d 27 +2.2% -7.5% 52% 22% -9.5%
all 71 -10.7% -19.2% 49% 25% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 25% -17.1%
10% -27.0% 20% -25.0%
15% -34.0% 14% -32.3%
20% -40.5% 10% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.60 · official $45.60 (match) · 221 history records