Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:44:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DE
0xded2…d8c5
other · 8 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$50 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$46 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$99
Realized+$46
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage161d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 1 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$23
14 days+$41
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $93 +$44 +48%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 08 $41 −$11 -28%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $40 +$12 +31%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $35 +$6 +16%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 25 $10 +$5 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 50% +$17
politics 27% +$44
tech 12% −$11
crypto 6% −$1
sports 6% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -20.9% -28.5% 25% 25% +3.0%
≤30d 7 +1.7% -8.0% 57% 57% +7.0%
≤90d 7 +1.7% -8.0% 57% 57% +7.0%
all 7 +1.7% -8.0% 57% 57% +7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 57% +7.0%
10% -16.8% 43% -3.2%
15% -24.8% 29% -12.6%
20% -32.2% 0% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.98 · official $98.98 (match) · 16 history records