Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:54:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xded6…f649 sports 117 markets active 0h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$835 (-8%) realized −$835 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%58W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$97est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,563
7 days−$1,563
14 days−$1,484
30 days−$1,298
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$281
crypto 20% −$451
other 10% −$282
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -59.5% -63.4% 24% 22% -35.5%
≤30d 67 -39.0% -44.8% 36% 34% -28.1%
≤90d 110 -14.1% -22.3% 50% 47% -17.7%
all 117 -14.0% -22.2% 50% 44% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 44% -18.3%
10% -29.7% 40% -26.1%
15% -36.5% 26% -33.3%
20% -42.7% 22% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$59 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$835
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses58 / 59
Est. fees paid−$97
Open positions0
Markets (closed)117 / 117
History coverage210d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 117 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $108 −$80 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $76 +$30 +40%
Will Daniel Barez win by KO or TKO? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bant Jun 22 $29 −$29 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 22 $28 −$28 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ollie Schmid win by KO or TKO? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Jose Ochoa win by KO or TKO? Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 22 $39 −$39 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 22 $49 −$49 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 22 $46 −$46 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main C Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Themba Gorimbo vs. Jonathan Micallef (Welterweight, P Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Preli Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Pre Jun 22 $112 −$70 -63%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 22 $32 −$32 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Kevin Christian (Light Heavyweight, P Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 22 $69 −$69 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Louie Sutherland win by KO or TKO? Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Mai Jun 22 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Jacob Malkoun win by KO or TKO? Jun 22 $76 −$76 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 22 $163 −$163 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh Jun 22 $56 −$56 -100%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 22 $99 −$99 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 22 $201 −$201 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 22 $157 −$121 -77%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 22 $167 −$167 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 22 $84 −$84 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Jun 22 $251 −$251 -100%
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) Jun 22 $234 −$216 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 22 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 22 $143 +$49 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $76 +$25 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 22 $76 +$14 +18%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $598 +$325 +54%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $470 +$128 +27%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 21 $323 +$147 +46%
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw Jun 21 $264 +$60 +23%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $189 +$75 +40%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $41 +$147 +358%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $28 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $20 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $15 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $21 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 408 history records