Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:22:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xded6…9713 sports 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$39 (-0%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 118L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$11
other 23% −$3
politics 15% −$14
crypto 10% −$8
world 8% +$3
economics 6% −$2
tech 4% −$3
culture 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 3 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.3%
all 130 -0.2% -9.7% 9% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage163d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $44 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $52 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 11 $132 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 11 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 11 $130 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 11 $408 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 10 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $293 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $554 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $296 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 09 $123 +$1 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Mar 09 $133 −$3 -2%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 08 $261 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 08 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 08 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 08 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 07 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 07 $994 −$1 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 07 $70 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 05 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 05 $272 −$1 -0%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 05 $127 $0 +0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 05 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 05 $242 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 05 $128 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 05 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Mar 05 $278 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 05 $477 −$1 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 05 $1 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 05 $138 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 05 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $255 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $130 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 04 $211 −$1 -0%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 04 $131 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 04 $230 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 04 $138 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 04 $283 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $147 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Mar 04 $316 +$2 +1%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 04 $137 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 04 $141 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $333 −$1 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 04 $312 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 04 $312 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 04 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $354 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $305 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 04 $284 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $39 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $44 13d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 14d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $2 14d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $13 14d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $52 22d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $52 22d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $52 36d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $54 37d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $127 101d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $128 101d
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 96¢ $128 101d
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 97¢ $49 102d
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 97¢ $7 102d
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 97¢ $7 102d
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 97¢ $7 102d
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 97¢ $7 102d
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 97¢ $7 102d
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 97¢ $7 102d
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 97¢ $38 102d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $130 102d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $130 102d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $127 102d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $128 102d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $127 102d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $23 102d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $104 102d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $123 102d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $123 103d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $130 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.74 · official $38.74 (match) · 585 history records