Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:17:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xdeda…a0ab crypto 269 markets active 0h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate35%94W / 175L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106
7 days+$106
14 days−$4
30 days−$395
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$466
sports 2% −$42
other 1% −$7
economics 1% −$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +2.3% -7.4% 48% 48% +9.2%
≤30d 163 -28.6% -35.4% 34% 26% -26.0%
≤90d 163 -28.6% -35.4% 34% 26% -26.0%
all 269 -21.3% -28.8% 35% 27% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 27% -25.2%
10% -35.6% 23% -32.3%
15% -41.8% 21% -38.9%
20% -47.5% 16% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses94 / 175
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)269 / 269
History coverage164d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 269 Trades
no open positions (108 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 21 $47 −$20 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$31 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$28 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$54 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$20 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$5 -19%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 +$5 +101%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Curaçao to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$27 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$24 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$28 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $43 −$17 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $25 −$9 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$7 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$11 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$12 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $30 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $63 −$20 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $52 −$20 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 10 $52 −$20 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 10 $67 −$35 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$6 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$9 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 10 $31 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 10 $52 −$20 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $41 −$10 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 09 $62 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $21 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $24 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $57 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $54 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $37 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $12 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 13h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 41¢ $41 14h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 18h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 26¢ $1 20h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 20h
Curaçao to score first vs. Ecuador? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 25h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $50 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $54 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 670 history records