Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:48:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DE 0xdee0…28d5 weather 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$556 (+13%) realized +$542 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate86%59W / 10L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$222
7 days+$540
14 days+$540
30 days+$542
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 72% +$542
sports 25% +$7
other 2% −$9
crypto 1% +$6
world 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +12.3% +1.6% 84% 67% +8.5%
≤30d 50 +12.1% +1.5% 84% 66% +8.3%
≤90d 57 +11.6% +1.0% 86% 61% +7.4%
all 69 +8.6% -1.7% 86% 54% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 54% +1.7%
10% -11.1% 30% -8.0%
15% -19.7% 14% -16.9%
20% -27.6% 6% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$12 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.46 per $1 lost it wins $5.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized+$542
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses59 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)69 / 73
History coverage144d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 19? No 83¢ 94¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? No 89¢ 94¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? No 87¢ 91¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 19? No 93¢ 96¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $51 +$21 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $101 −$27 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $51 +$12 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $51 +$8 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $15 −$5 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 +$9 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 +$3 +7%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$3 +32%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $204 +$129 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $81 +$19 +23%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -56%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$10 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $101 +$23 +22%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $102 +$42 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $101 +$14 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$10 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 +$15 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$2 +5%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $86 +$20 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $101 +$22 +21%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $98 −$13 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $101 +$11 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$10 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $51 +$16 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$12 +24%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $101 +$21 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$5 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$8 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $152 +$40 +26%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $101 +$34 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $101 +$31 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on May 23? May 23 $42 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 87¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 89¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 83¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 58¢ $75 10h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $62 12h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 70¢ $51 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? SELL No 87¢ $58 16h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 25¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 60¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 72¢ $51 18h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 80¢ $51 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 73¢ $51 18h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 80¢ $50 19h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $59 19h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 50¢ $9 20h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $53 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 56¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $54 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $54 21h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $50 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $50 22h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $50 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $50 23h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 34h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 34h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $333 34h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $100 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $213.64 · official $213.64 (match) · 157 history records