Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:39:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DE 0xdeea…2d5d other 12 markets active 3d ago coverage 513d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,147 (-44%) realized −$2,147 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate75%9W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$408per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$252
14 days+$106
30 days+$340
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$2,269
world 13% −$147
politics 11% +$246
crypto 3% +$6
economics 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +12.4% +1.7% 80% 60% +11.8%
≤30d 7 +14.0% +3.1% 71% 57% +5.1%
≤90d 7 +14.0% +3.1% 71% 57% +5.1%
all 12 +2.1% -7.6% 75% 42% -49.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 42% -49.4%
10% -16.5% 33% -54.3%
15% -24.5% 33% -58.7%
20% -31.9% 17% -62.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$940 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

513d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,147
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses9 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage513d
Avg bet$408
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $115 +$85 +73%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $215 +$85 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $153 −$152 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $489 +$234 +48%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $636 −$147 -23%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $396 +$235 +59%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Sep 24 $2,520 −$2,520 -100%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? Apr 04 $76 +$3 +3%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Apr 04 $75 +$1 +2%
Will any of Trump’s children launch a coin by Friday? Mar 14 $66 +$9 +14%
Trump mentions his memecoin in inaugural address? Jan 21 $60 +$5 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records