Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:47:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DE 0xdeeb…8e29 crypto 1049 markets active 3h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,232 (-1%) realized −$2,230 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate95%982W / 56L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day26.5pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,869now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days−$149
14 days−$125
30 days+$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$1,521
sports 14% +$411
other 6% −$876
weather 1% −$34
tech 0% −$23
finance 0% +$2
world 0% +$5
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -13.7% -21.9% 82% 12% -12.4%
≤30d 133 +6.9% -3.3% 90% 21% -9.1%
≤90d 665 -0.3% -9.8% 92% 11% -12.3%
all 1038 +0.8% -8.8% 95% 7% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 7% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 5% -19.1%
15% -25.5% 3% -26.9%
20% -32.8% 2% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$106 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$1,869
Realized−$2,230
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses982 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1038 / 1049
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$184
Trades / day26.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1038 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $500 $500 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) Brazil 100¢ 100¢ $500 $499 −$1 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $320 $321 +$1 (+0%)
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) Portugal 100¢ 99¢ $240 $239 −$1 (-0%)
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) Argentina 99¢ 99¢ $110 $110 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) France 100¢ 99¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Qatar 87¢ 86¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Argentina 98¢ 97¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Over 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-2.5) Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) Jun 15 $150 +$1 +1%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5) Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 15 $200 +$1 +0%
Spread: Tunisia (-2.5) Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Spread: Curaçao (-2.5) Jun 14 $300 $0 +0%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 14 $30 +$4 +13%
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) Jun 14 $70 $0 +1%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +24%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 14 $40 +$2 +4%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $15 +$7 +44%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 13 $50 +$1 +1%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $40 +$7 +17%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $20 +$1 +4%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $10 +$1 +7%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 12 $30 +$1 +3%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 11 $50 +$1 +2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 11 $30 +$1 +4%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) Jun 11 $500 $0 +0%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 11 $400 +$2 +0%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 11 $50 +$1 +1%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $600 +$1 +0%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $80 +$2 +2%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5) Jun 10 $50 +$1 +2%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 10 $50 +$1 +2%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $40 +$8 +21%
Spread: Venezuela (-2.5) Jun 10 $10 +$1 +11%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $100 +$1 +1%
Spread: Cambodia (-2.5) Jun 10 $40 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $600 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 43¢ $4 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $320 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 5h
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $500 5h
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Qatar 87¢ $70 5h
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) BUY Argentina 99¢ $110 5h
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 99¢ $100 10h
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) BUY Portugal 100¢ $140 12h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $10 31h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $50 31h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Argentina 98¢ $20 31h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY France 100¢ $100 31h
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) BUY Belgium 99¢ $100 31h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) BUY Spain 100¢ $200 31h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 32h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 83¢ $15 46h
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) BUY Haiti 80¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 2d
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 99¢ $50 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) BUY Qatar 86¢ $10 3d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 71¢ $10 3d
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) BUY Australia 88¢ $30 3d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Brazil 96¢ $40 3d
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) BUY Portugal 100¢ $100 3d
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 100¢ $100 3d
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) BUY Belgium 99¢ $50 3d
Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5) BUY Spain 100¢ $100 3d
Spread: Tunisia (-2.5) BUY Sweden 99¢ $30 3d
Spread: Curaçao (-2.5) BUY Germany 100¢ $300 3d
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) BUY Scotland 99¢ $70 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,869.23 · official $1,873.23 (match) · 3500 history records