Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:02:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DE 0xdeef…5583 world 12 markets active 5d ago coverage 48d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,315 (-11%) realized −$1,324 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,036per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2,213
14 days−$2,255
30 days−$1,527
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 99% −$1,355
other 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -36.9% -42.9% 20% 0% -34.7%
≤30d 8 -14.6% -22.7% 38% 12% -23.6%
≤90d 10 -7.3% -16.2% 50% 30% -21.1%
all 10 -7.3% -16.2% 50% 30% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 30% -21.1%
10% -24.2% 20% -28.6%
15% -31.5% 10% -35.5%
20% -38.2% 10% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$185 vs −$456 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$1,324
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage48d
Avg bet$1,036
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $63 +$13 (+26%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $54 $49 −$4 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 12 $699 −$696 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $1,473 −$30 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $3,756 −$1,383 -37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $801 −$133 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2,910 +$27 +1%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Jun 07 $85 −$41 -48%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $1,177 +$30 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $612 +$698 +114%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 04 $359 +$91 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 04 $454 +$81 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 58¢ $699 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $699 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 39¢ $668 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $668 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $699 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $699 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $71 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $745 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $744 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $52 7d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $56 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 60¢ $107 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $120 8d
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? SELL No $44 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 64¢ $76 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $801 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $801 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $654 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 66¢ $654 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $740 11d
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? BUY No 18¢ $85 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $825 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $856 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 48¢ $856 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 28¢ $1,249 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 64¢ $637 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $611 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $569 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 64¢ $569 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 41¢ $622 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.77 · official $112.77 (match) · 51 history records