Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:02:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xdeef…9bb9 crypto 783 markets active 2h ago coverage 397d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$22 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate50%377W / 384L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$134
14 days+$187
30 days+$221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$111
other 34% +$103
finance 2% −$106
world 2% +$8
politics 1% −$38
sports 1% −$24
tech 1% +$21
economics 0% −$11
culture 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +95.6% +77.0% 57% 32% -4.7%
≤30d 91 +58.4% +43.3% 60% 29% -6.9%
≤90d 295 +6.8% -3.4% 54% 25% -8.9%
all 761 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 27% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 27% -9.6%
10% -17.4% 20% -18.2%
15% -25.4% 16% -26.1%
20% -32.7% 14% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

397d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses377 / 384
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions15
Markets (closed)761 / 783
History coverage397d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 761 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? No 79¢ 69¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+29%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+19%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+44%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-81%)
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-86%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $41 +$17 +41%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $38 +$10 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $300 +$6 +2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $501 +$5 +1%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a Jun 17 $2 +$24 +1171%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $50 +$9 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 −$12 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $190 +$10 +5%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $300 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $41 +$9 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$5 +246%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $300 +$7 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $400 +$6 +2%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $4 +$4 +93%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AN Jun 15 $2 +$47 +2271%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $2 +$3 +152%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$2 -194%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$2 -194%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 14? Jun 14 $600 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $100 −$53 -53%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$4 -195%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $401 +$26 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $249 −$4 -2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- Jun 13 $1 +$21 +2001%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$2 -192%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $801 +$13 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $101 +$23 +22%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $300 +$6 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $301 +$7 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $20 +$7 +36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$20 -194%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $101 +$10 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $46 +$13 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $300 +$8 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $141 +$10 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 19h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND T BUY 10¢ $1 24h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 25h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY 11¢ $2 42h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 47h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $41 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $30 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $14 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $306 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 15¢ $1 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States vs. Australia end in BUY 8¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $8 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $300 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $506 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $501 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 8¢ $1 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $100 4d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 84¢ $88 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $24 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $166 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a BUY 8¢ $2 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 80¢ $41 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.14 · official $65.14 (match) · 1894 history records