Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:00:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xdef0…f778 world 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate31%18W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$8
sports 38% −$6
other 10% +$1
finance 1% $0
politics 1% −$3
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.5% -10.0% 55% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 32 +0.3% -9.2% 31% 3% -10.2%
≤90d 47 -2.0% -11.3% 30% 2% -9.8%
all 59 -13.0% -21.3% 31% 3% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 3% -10.2%
10% -28.8% 2% -18.8%
15% -35.7% 2% -26.6%
20% -42.0% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses18 / 41
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage526d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $26 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $24 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $54 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $24 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $46 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $21 −$2 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $33 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $26 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $25 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $27 −$1 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $27 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $28 −$1 -3%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $28 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $62 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $31 +$3 +9%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $59 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $70 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $25 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $16 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $25 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $51 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $71 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $24 −$6 -24%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $68 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $36 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $21 +$1 +4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $648 +$1 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $342 −$1 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $78 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 25 $281 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $49 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $20 −$3 -16%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $7 +$1 +7%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $26 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $26 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $24 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $24 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $0 22h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $24 26h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 28h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $19 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $24 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $24 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 35¢ $15 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $12 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 29¢ $19 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 32¢ $21 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $15 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $11 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $26 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $18 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $8 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $26 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $26 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $26 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 204 history records