Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:48:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DE 0xdef0…664e sports 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,760 (+10%) realized +$4,260 · open −$500
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate77%56W / 17L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$454per market
Trades / day37.7pace
Fees−$240est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,316now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$2,158
other 25% +$1,994
world 1% $0
crypto 1% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +13.1% +2.3% 77% 68% +4.3%
≤30d 73 +13.1% +2.3% 77% 68% +4.3%
≤90d 73 +13.1% +2.3% 77% 68% +4.3%
all 73 +13.1% +2.3% 77% 68% +4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.3% 68% +4.3%
10% ← realistic here -7.5% 40% -5.7%
15% -16.4% 30% -14.8%
20% -24.6% 19% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$652) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$168 vs −$282 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,316
Realized+$4,260
Unrealized−$500
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses56 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$240
Open positions2
Markets (closed)73 / 81
History coverage4d
Avg bet$454
Trades / day37.7
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 78¢ $979 $1,316 +$337 (+34%)
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Thiago Seyboth Wild 72¢ $837 $1 −$836 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $765 +$141 +18%
Asuncion 2: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 17 $351 +$51 +14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $363 +$224 +62%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $746 +$281 +38%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $502 +$72 +14%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $348 +$15 +4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,009 −$358 -36%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Jun 17 $699 +$111 +16%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Jun 17 $592 +$152 +26%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 17 $652 +$48 +7%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $994 +$169 +17%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $17 −$16 -99%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche Jun 17 $391 +$56 +14%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 17 $1,044 +$550 +53%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15 Jun 17 $694 +$363 +52%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $393 +$995 +253%
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 17 $344 +$49 +14%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $311 +$33 +11%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $223 +$88 +40%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 16 $492 −$352 -72%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $446 +$458 +102%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $369 +$123 +33%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $351 +$17 +5%
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 16 $300 +$51 +17%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 16 $268 +$32 +12%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $218 +$50 +23%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $224 −$5 -2%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $223 −$222 -99%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $223 −$221 -99%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $166 −$164 -99%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $449 −$445 -99%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $405 +$45 +11%
ITF Tauste: Yushan Shao vs Marine Szostak Jun 16 $369 +$35 +10%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $194 +$176 +90%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $599 +$455 +76%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-1 Jun 15 $793 −$344 -43%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $363 +$197 +54%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $296 +$532 +180%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $430 +$128 +30%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $298 +$131 +44%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $719 −$712 -99%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $446 −$410 -92%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $828 +$451 +54%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $379 +$65 +17%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $618 +$212 +34%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $192 −$158 -82%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $299 +$46 +15%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $667 +$251 +38%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $109 +$82 +75%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $1,337 −$1,037 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 76¢ $907 25m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $401 1h
Asuncion 2: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna SELL Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 100¢ $402 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 77¢ $992 1h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 72¢ $844 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $587 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,027 1h
Asuncion 2: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 87¢ $351 1h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea SELL Billy Harris 100¢ $574 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 61¢ $363 2h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng SELL Talia Gibson 65¢ $363 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $194 2h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea BUY Billy Harris 87¢ $502 2h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 84¢ $765 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL 45¢ $651 2h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith SELL Jurij Rodionov 100¢ $810 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $396 2h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 61¢ $348 2h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel SELL Gerard Campana Lee 100¢ $744 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $746 3h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith BUY Jurij Rodionov 86¢ $699 3h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Gerard Campana Lee 79¢ $592 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 69¢ $1,009 3h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 99¢ $700 4h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria SELL Tatjana Maria 100¢ $1,164 4h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 74¢ $17 4h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche SELL Luca Van Assche 100¢ $447 4h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 85¢ $994 4h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 92¢ $652 4h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 87¢ $391 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,316.29 · official $2,766.50 · 164 history records