Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:41:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DE 0xdef1…7a1e sports 342 markets active 2d ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$495 (+10%) realized +$491 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%175W / 149L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$330now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$122
7 days−$74
14 days+$227
30 days+$291
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$511
other 11% −$41
crypto 6% +$72
world 5% −$66
tech 1% −$4
economics 0% −$2
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +1.3% -8.4% 45% 40% -16.7%
≤30d 147 +14.2% +3.4% 56% 48% +2.1%
≤90d 295 +9.6% -0.8% 54% 48% +0.7%
all 324 +8.4% -1.9% 54% 48% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 48% -0.1%
10% -11.3% 48% -9.7%
15% -19.9% 46% -18.4%
20% -27.7% 45% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$12 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$330
Realized+$491
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses175 / 149
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions18
Markets (closed)324 / 342
History coverage125d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 324 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+3%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 100¢ $20 $31 +$11 (+54%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 90¢ 99¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+10%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? No 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ 38¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-36%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 72¢ 92¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+28%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 41¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 143 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $6 +$5 +79%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +76%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 19 $20 −$1 -7%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva Jun 19 $10 +$9 +86%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $10 +$3 +31%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $20 +$16 +78%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Basket Zielona Gora vs. Legia Warszawa Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Dublin: Kyrian Jacquet vs Henry Searle Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 19 $10 $0 -3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $10 +$14 +134%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $10 +$12 +114%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $10 +$10 +101%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $10 +$9 +93%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $10 +$11 +105%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $20 +$16 +79%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $10 +$6 +62%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $80 $0 +0%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $10 +$9 +93%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $10 +$5 +52%
ITF Mohammedia: Polina Kuharenko vs Vaidehi Chaudhari Jun 16 $10 +$7 +73%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $10 +$8 +76%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$30 -59%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$46 +226%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 55¢ $6 39h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 55¢ $10 39h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 60¢ $10 39h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 57¢ $10 39h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ $10 39h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 47¢ $10 39h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 61¢ $20 39h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 53¢ $10 39h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 29¢ $10 39h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 47¢ $10 39h
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico BUY San Francisco Unicorns 56¢ $10 39h
Basket Zielona Gora vs. Legia Warszawa BUY Legia Warszawa 58¢ $10 39h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 48¢ $10 39h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic BUY Ann Li 53¢ $10 39h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 61¢ $10 39h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva BUY Alina Charaeva 53¢ $10 39h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 56¢ $10 39h
Dublin: Kyrian Jacquet vs Henry Searle BUY Kyrian Jacquet 60¢ $10 39h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexander Zverev 76¢ $10 39h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 55¢ $10 39h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $10 39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 39h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 37¢ $20 39h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 39h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 39h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 39h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $20 39h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 4d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $330.33 · official $330.33 (match) · 741 history records