trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 5 | +2.9% | -6.9% | 20% | 20% | -9.6% |
| all | 21 | -13.4% | -21.6% | 43% | 33% | -9.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -21.6% | 33% | -9.7% |
| 10% | -29.1% | 19% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -36.0% | 10% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -42.2% | 5% | -33.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | $65 | $65 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $50 | $50 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $50 | $50 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Apr 27 | $360 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Apr 27 | $75 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Apr 13 | $53 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Apr 13 | $50 | $0 | -0% |
| Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by March 31? | Apr 11 | $1 | $0 | +15% |
| Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Feb 18 | $111 | $0 | -0% |
| Will KKR & Co (KKR) beat quarterly earnings? | Feb 03 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Trump approval Up or Down this week? | Jan 26 | $2 | −$1 | -66% |
| Apple Siri partnership with OpenAI/Anthropic by December 31? | Jan 26 | $6 | +$1 | +24% |
| Will Apple release a new product line in 2025? | Jan 26 | $6 | +$3 | +49% |
| Will Haiti win on 2025-11-18? | Dec 20 | $1 | $0 | +32% |
| Will News Corp (NWSA) beat quarterly earnings? | Nov 18 | $2 | +$1 | +53% |
| Will Pump.fun hit $0.01 in 2025? | Sep 19 | $2 | −$2 | -80% |
| US government shutdown by October 1? | Sep 02 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk by April 30? | May 20 | $8 | +$1 | +6% |
| Avalanche vs. Blackhawks | Feb 13 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will $POPCAT be listed first on Coinbase? | Jan 08 | $1 | $0 | +20% |
| Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Nov 20 | $895 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Nov 19 | $1 | $0 | +18% |
| Will a Republican win Missouri Governor Election? | Nov 19 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? | Aug 21 | $131 | −$2 | -1% |