Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DE
0xdef7…ef42
crypto · 290 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$412 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$412 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$0
Realized+$412
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses154 / 136
Open positions0
Markets (closed)290 / 290
Avg bet$44
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 0 History 290 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$67
14 days+$67
30 days+$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown? Yes 63¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $206 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$7 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $102 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $135 +$14 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $102 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $302 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $203 +$17 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $110 −$6 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $204 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $315 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $528 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $141 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $154 −$29 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 09 $11 +$3 +23%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on I Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$5 -48%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 09 $3 +$9 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Feb 19 $9 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Feb 19 $2 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 07 $320 +$18 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 07 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 07 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 06 $140 +$20 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 06 $320 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 06 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 06 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 06 $450 +$34 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Feb 06 $423 −$9 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Feb 06 $331 +$17 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Feb 06 $131 +$20 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Feb 06 $292 +$14 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 06 $779 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 06 $120 +$10 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 82% +$143
other 15% +$288
tech 1% −$5
world 1% −$8
politics 1% +$3
weather 0% −$7
sports 0% $0
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $0 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $27 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $80 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $124 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -20.9% -28.5% 53% 21% -6.8%
≤30d 34 -20.9% -28.5% 53% 21% -6.8%
≤90d 34 -20.9% -28.5% 53% 21% -6.8%
all 290 -10.5% -19.0% 53% 30% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 30% -6.4%
10% -26.7% 21% -15.4%
15% -33.8% 13% -23.6%
20% -40.3% 10% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1342 history records