Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:13:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DE 0xdef9…9aee other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$28 (-4%) realized +$52 · open −$80
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate65%11W / 6L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$334now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$51
14 days+$54
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$24
sports 10% +$29
crypto 2% −$12
politics 1% −$4
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +18.4% +7.1% 67% 67% +9.3%
≤30d 17 -7.0% -15.9% 65% 41% +10.3%
≤90d 17 -7.0% -15.9% 65% 41% +10.3%
all 17 -7.0% -15.9% 65% 41% +10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 41% +10.3%
10% -23.9% 29% -0.2%
15% -31.3% 24% -9.9%
20% -38.0% 18% -18.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.34 per $1 lost it wins $3.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$334
Realized+$52
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses11 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)17 / 26
History coverage20d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $169 $169 −$0 (-0%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 62¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 30¢ $50 $28 −$22 (-44%)
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? Yes 67¢ 72¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+7%)
Will Senegal be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 24¢ 18¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-24%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $18 −$12 (-39%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $15 −$10 (-39%)
Will Desire Doue be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $1 −$19 (-93%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $77 +$29 +38%
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Jun 29 $21 +$14 +66%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $26 +$15 +60%
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Jun 28 $51 −$6 -12%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $15 −$8 -54%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $59 +$7 +12%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $16 +$2 +15%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $31 +$31 +101%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $106 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $77 5h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? SELL Yes $34 11h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 93¢ $41 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 77¢ $66 38h
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? SELL Yes 37¢ $45 38h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 2d
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 56¢ $26 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $66 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $59 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $18 12d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 16d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 16d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 16d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 16d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 16d
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY Yes $4 17d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $31 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 18d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $1 18d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $2 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 18d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 18d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 19d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 19d
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 19d
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $334.15 · official $334.15 (match) · 59 history records