Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:36:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xdefb…5b50 other 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$379 (-12%) realized −$328 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%9W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$633
7 days+$402
14 days−$482
30 days−$342
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$330
sports 31% −$11
crypto 2% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +13.2% +2.4% 46% 38% +25.5%
≤30d 22 +5.8% -4.3% 41% 36% -22.8%
≤90d 22 +5.8% -4.3% 41% 36% -22.8%
all 22 +5.8% -4.3% 41% 36% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 36% -22.8%
10% -13.5% 32% -30.2%
15% -21.8% 32% -36.9%
20% -29.5% 27% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$98 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$218
Realized−$328
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses9 / 13
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage22d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? No 42¢ 38¢ $173 $160 −$13 (-7%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $97 $58 −$39 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $181 +$299 +165%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $32 −$7 -21%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$175 +175%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $39 −$38 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $55 +$31 +57%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $66 +$189 +288%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $45 −$8 -17%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $195 +$37 +19%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$3 +5%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $116 −$113 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $43 −$33 -76%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $87 −$85 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $108 −$22 -20%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $38 −$5 -13%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $54 −$53 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $350 −$344 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $308 −$243 -79%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $282 −$278 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $507 +$61 +12%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $40 +$91 +228%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $42 +$49 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 38¢ $30 19m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 20m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 66¢ $13 20m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 41¢ $26 30m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 35m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 41¢ $15 36m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 41¢ $20 37m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 37m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 38m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 40¢ $24 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 40¢ $76 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $481 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 68¢ $25 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $25 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 53¢ $31 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 41¢ $25 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $14 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $15 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $19 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $51 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $275 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 37¢ $16 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 36¢ $40 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 35¢ $20 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 35¢ $13 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 34¢ $11 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.03 · official $218.03 (match) · 133 history records