Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:18:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DE
0xdefe…17f4
finance · 49 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$67,553 +21%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$67,541 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP finance specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$4,466
Realized+$67,541
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses32 / 238
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)270 / 49
Avg bet$6,526
Trades / day158.0
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 2 History 270 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12,128
7 days−$17,959
14 days+$12,335
30 days+$67,541
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Down 45¢ 34¢ $4,541 $3,510 −$1,031 (-23%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Down 45¢ 37¢ $1,117 $922 −$195 (-17%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Up 61¢ 63¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+3%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Up 59¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $148 $0 −$148 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $473 $0 −$473 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $77 $0 −$77 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $148 −$148 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $473 −$473 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $460 −$460 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
finance 51% +$40,961
other 49% +$31,747
tech 0% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 28¢ $6 1m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 30¢ $8 2m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 70¢ $17 2m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 70¢ $18 2m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 68¢ $34 3m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 33¢ $48 49m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 33¢ $16 55m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 34¢ $17 59m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 35¢ $18 59m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 35¢ $15 59m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 63¢ $32 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 63¢ $5 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 60¢ $24 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 46¢ $140 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 47¢ $194 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 49¢ $1,199 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 56¢ $44 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 56¢ $118 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 47¢ $90 3h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 47¢ $2,350 3h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 48¢ $2 3h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 50¢ $12 3h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 51¢ $8 3h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 51¢ $25 3h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 51¢ $26 3h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 51¢ $12 3h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 50¢ $12 3h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 51¢ $13 3h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 51¢ $26 3h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 51¢ $26 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-69.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 241 -92.0% -92.8% 5% 4% -26.7%
≤30d 270 -66.1% -69.4% 12% 10% +5.8%
≤90d 270 -66.1% -69.4% 12% 10% +5.8%
all 270 -66.1% -69.4% 12% 10% +5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover158.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -69.4% 10% +5.8%
10% -72.3% 9% -4.3%
15% ← realistic here -75.0% 8% -13.6%
20% -77.4% 6% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,465.55 · official $4,465.96 (match) · 3500 history records