Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf01…6865 world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 287d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2,025 (+13%) realized +$2,058 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%9W / 23L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$489per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2,021
14 days+$2,021
30 days+$1,111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% +$2,440
culture 26% +$107
other 15% +$149
world 13% −$1,968
politics 10% +$2,366
crypto 6% −$888
economics 3% −$233
weather 0% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-37.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +165.3% +140.0% 100% 100% +140.0%
≤30d 2 +32.6% +20.0% 50% 50% +37.6%
≤90d 17 -72.5% -75.2% 12% 12% -29.0%
all 32 -30.8% -37.4% 28% 28% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.4% 28% +1.6%
10% -43.4% 25% -8.1%
15% -48.9% 16% -17.0%
20% -53.9% 16% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$909) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -71% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$943 vs −$284 · ×3.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

287d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized+$2,058
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses9 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage287d
Avg bet$489
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $200 $167 −$33 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $1,223 +$2,021 +165%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $946 −$909 -96%
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 15 $1,244 +$1,262 +101%
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 300k? Apr 13 $149 −$149 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 13 $800 −$800 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Mar 25 $150 −$150 -100%
Magic vs. Hawks Mar 25 $50 −$50 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Mar 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Mar 25 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Mar 25 $1,791 −$1,791 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Mar 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30? Mar 25 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Mar 25 $225 −$225 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on March 16? Mar 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31? Mar 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 7? Mar 25 $16 −$16 -100%
US strike on Cuba by January 31? Mar 25 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 5? Mar 05 $56 −$36 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 05 $30 +$22 +73%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 15 $60 −$29 -49%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 15 $500 −$348 -70%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? Nov 10 $1,005 +$186 +18%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? Nov 09 $168 +$50 +30%
Will Coinbase Global (COIN) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 31 $1,896 +$445 +24%
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be under 2500000? Oct 08 $2,250 +$2,047 +91%
Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in September? Sep 23 $330 +$2,209 +669%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 15? Sep 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80-90 million views on week 1? Sep 17 $165 −$165 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Insane" during his next video? Sep 17 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches? Sep 09 $300 −$298 -99%
Cowboys vs. Eagles Sep 05 $1,000 +$249 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $210 2h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 37¢ $1,223 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $104 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $104 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $52 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $52 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $156 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $364 14d
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 49¢ $119 65d
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 49¢ $103 65d
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 49¢ $22 65d
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,000 65d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $500 82d
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 300k? BUY No 36¢ $9 83d
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 300k? BUY No 36¢ $56 83d
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 300k? BUY No 36¢ $48 83d
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 300k? BUY No 36¢ $4 83d
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 300k? BUY No 34¢ $33 83d
Magic vs. Hawks BUY Magic 43¢ $50 92d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on March 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $13 93d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 5? SELL Yes 27¢ $20 104d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 5? BUY Yes 73¢ $0 104d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 5? BUY Yes 73¢ $13 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.67 · official $166.67 (match) · 155 history records