Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:23:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf02…7900 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$30 (-14%) realized −$32 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate32%7W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$4
other 31% −$26
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-34.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -27.8% -34.7% 32% 27% -23.8%
≤30d 22 -27.8% -34.7% 32% 27% -23.8%
≤90d 22 -27.8% -34.7% 32% 27% -23.8%
all 22 -27.8% -34.7% 32% 27% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.7% 27% -23.8%
10% -40.9% 27% -31.1%
15% -46.6% 27% -37.8%
20% -51.9% 23% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses7 / 15
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage2d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 100¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+316%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 14¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -64%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 +$5 +43%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $22 −$21 -96%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -74%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -68%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -79%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $5 $0 +10%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $44 −$31 -70%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -79%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Completed matc Jun 13 $48 +$46 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 4h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 17h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka $0 18h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 79¢ $10 18h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 77¢ $10 19h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL West Indies 22¢ $1 19h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $6 19h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 19h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 65¢ $2 20h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $1 20h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 20h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 20h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $0 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 25h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 29h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 29h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes $1 29h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 100¢ $18 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.17 · official $4.17 (match) · 49 history records