Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:53:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DF 0xdf03…3f1d sports 579 markets active 1h ago coverage 282d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,721 (-3%) realized −$2,670 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate50%287W / 290L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$114est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$46
14 days−$453
30 days−$1,554
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 25% +$357
sports 23% −$885
world 14% −$1,411
politics 14% −$150
crypto 10% −$526
economics 8% −$196
tech 4% −$147
finance 2% +$50
culture 0% −$102
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -11.4% -19.9% 50% 0% -19.7%
≤30d 62 -13.0% -21.3% 50% 35% -17.8%
≤90d 84 -5.6% -14.6% 56% 43% -14.5%
all 577 -12.6% -20.9% 50% 36% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 36% -12.3%
10% -28.5% 30% -20.7%
15% -35.4% 25% -28.3%
20% -41.7% 18% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$60 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

282d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized−$2,670
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses287 / 290
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$114
Open positions2
Markets (closed)577 / 579
History coverage282d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 577 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Under 46¢ 55¢ $166 $197 +$31 (+18%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Under 41¢ 0¢ $82 $0 −$82 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $200 −$50 -25%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $205 +$4 +2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $282 −$282 -100%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $21 −$14 -67%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 12 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 12 $45 −$33 -73%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Jun 12 $126 −$69 -54%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in June? Jun 12 $506 +$6 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 12 $75 −$75 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $44 −$44 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $157 −$157 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $438 +$331 +76%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $120 in June? Jun 11 $431 +$10 +2%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $500 −$55 -11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $126 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $62 +$4 +6%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $139 +$1 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 209.5 Jun 09 $68 +$36 +52%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 09 $487 +$269 +55%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $683 +$74 +11%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $580 +$19 +3%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 07 $1,786 −$388 -22%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 07 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $580 +$80 +14%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $102 +$198 +194%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $114 +$86 +75%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $124 +$76 +61%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $819 +$409 +50%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $411 +$39 +10%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $682 +$78 +12%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $36 −$36 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 03 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 03 $58 −$58 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 03 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $52 −$52 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $50 +$23 +46%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $100 +$104 +105%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $102 +$148 +146%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $65 −$65 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $112 −$112 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $45 +$90 +198%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $117 +$133 +114%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $156 in May? May 29 $239 +$261 +109%
Will Trump say "World Cup" during Cabinet meeting? May 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 29 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 29 $104 −$104 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 29 $277 −$277 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? May 29 $1,643 −$1,043 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 32¢ $150 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 68¢ $1 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 68¢ $159 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 68¢ $39 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 68¢ $5 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 67¢ $2 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 68¢ $3 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 41¢ $200 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 46¢ $169 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $31 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $103 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $71 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 41¢ $7 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 41¢ $58 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 41¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $5 11d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $17 11d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $6 11d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $109 11d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $4 11d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $30 11d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $4 11d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $7 11d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $94 11d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $4 11d
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 11d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL Yes 4¢ $14 11d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 1¢ $12 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.77 · official $196.77 (match) · 2143 history records