Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:57:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DF 0xdf06…f4c4 crypto 1049 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (140 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$12,143 (+70%) realized +$12,146 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%586W / 643L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day139.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$2,576
other 1% +$158
weather 1% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (140 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1022 +25.5% +13.5% 46% 42% -23.9%
≤30d 1229 +23.1% +11.4% 48% 43% -18.6%
≤90d 1229 +23.1% +11.4% 48% 43% -18.6%
all 1229 +23.1% +11.4% 48% 43% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover139.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.4% 43% -18.6%
10% ← realistic here +0.7% 40% -26.4%
15% -9.0% 37% -33.5%
20% -17.9% 33% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$13 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12,146
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses586 / 643
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1229 / 1049
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day139.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Down 55¢ 2¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$5 -426%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$5 -204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$9 -984%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$6 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$5 -287%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $0 +$1 +615%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 21 $33 −$21 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $14 −$13 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$9 +928%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$12 -183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$9 -849%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$4 -147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$6 -361%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$8 -248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$6 -210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$2 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$29 -112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $28 −$31 -112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $0 +$13 +30966%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $23 −$17 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$2 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $36 −$30 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 21 $28 −$24 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$13 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $7 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $22 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $8 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $30 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $27 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $29 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.44 · official $0.23 (match) · 3500 history records