Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:00:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DF
0xdf0a…08e8
other · 158 markets active 16h ago
0.0score
+$25,149 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$29,192 · open −$4,043
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$63,782
Realized+$29,192
Unrealized−$4,043
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses131 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)153 / 158
History coverage67d
Avg bet$10,256
Trades / day48.6
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit9%
Chart Positions 5 History 153 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$202
7 days+$6,848
14 days+$6,108
30 days+$7,446
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $40,958 $41,414 +$456 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 95¢ 69¢ $17,071 $12,324 −$4,746 (-28%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $6,581 $6,763 +$182 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $2,195 $2,221 +$26 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $1,020 $1,060 +$40 (+4%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 68¢ 0¢ $6,773 $0 −$6,773 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $9,542 +$53 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $307 +$20 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $3,695 +$64 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $2,516 +$64 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $19,675 +$454 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $13,465 +$443 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $16,728 +$828 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $7,468 +$982 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $210 +$27 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $12,176 +$470 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $6,780 +$79 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $5,720 +$175 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1,287 +$33 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $36,461 +$2,002 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $63,760 +$1,152 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1,500 +$117 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $58 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $204 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $27,278 +$827 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $710 +$22 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $90,764 +$1,674 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $11,922 +$148 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $11 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $7,667 +$172 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $658 +$273 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $6,884 +$116 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $29,296 +$92 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $6,804 −$6,773 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 31 $19,062 +$409 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $27,017 +$122 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $1,383 +$9 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $2,823 −$53 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $50,235 +$1,965 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $3,194 +$45 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $1,082 +$36 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $5,728 +$46 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $1,069 +$10 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $15,515 +$356 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $4,419 +$581 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $50,242 +$296 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $29,607 +$702 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $29,540 +$460 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $7,915 +$278 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $7,413 +$124 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $14,692 +$506 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $28,985 +$1,015 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $49,311 +$1,461 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $20,130 −$2,595 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $47,314 +$1,845 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $29,520 +$480 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 97% +$31,688
crypto 3% −$6,800
politics 1% +$261
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $227 16h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $271 16h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $77 16h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $19 16h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $11 16h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $10 16h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 16h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $24 16h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $29 16h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $411 16h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $146 16h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $97 16h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $52 16h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $151 16h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $226 16h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $150 20h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1,731 20h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1,859 20h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $620 20h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1,012 20h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $0 20h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $416 20h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $118 20h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $14 21h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $85 21h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 21h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1,007 21h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $176 21h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 21h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $0 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +4.4% -5.5% 100% 13% -6.4%
≤30d 58 +1.3% -8.3% 93% 10% -8.8%
≤90d 153 +12.6% +1.9% 86% 13% -7.8%
all 153 +12.6% +1.9% 86% 13% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover48.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.9% 13% -7.8%
10% -7.9% 6% -16.7%
15% ← realistic here -16.8% 4% -24.7%
20% -24.9% 3% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63,782.14 · official $63,783.93 (match) · 3500 history records