Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:33:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf13…2a9d crypto 210 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$67 (-1%) realized −$178 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate32%67W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day77.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$65
14 days−$178
30 days−$178
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$178
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 170 +1.1% -8.5% 34% 18% -11.7%
≤30d 209 +0.5% -9.1% 32% 15% -12.9%
≤90d 209 +0.5% -9.1% 32% 15% -12.9%
all 209 +0.5% -9.1% 32% 15% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 15% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 8% -21.3%
15% -25.7% 5% -28.9%
20% -33.0% 3% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$178
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses67 / 142
Open positions1
Markets (closed)209 / 210
History coverage12d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day77.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 209 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 63¢ 60¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 38¢ 40¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$7 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $18 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $42 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $43 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $40 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $71 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $27 −$5 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $36 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $18 −$8 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $24 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $19 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $23 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $8 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $7 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $8 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $8 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $0 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $6 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $8 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $0 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $7 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 41m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.02 · official $17.77 (match) · 1171 history records