Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:31:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf17…6a3d other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$68 (-16%) realized −$82 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate16%5W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$37
14 days−$83
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$26
sports 18% −$41
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-53.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -34.1% -40.4% 21% 14% -28.7%
≤30d 32 -48.7% -53.6% 16% 6% -31.0%
≤90d 32 -48.7% -53.6% 16% 6% -31.0%
all 32 -48.7% -53.6% 16% 6% -31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.6% 6% -31.0%
10% -58.0% 6% -37.6%
15% -62.1% 6% -43.7%
20% -65.8% 6% -49.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -55% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses5 / 27
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)32 / 36
History coverage12d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? No 90¢ 90¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 50¢ 78¢ $25 $39 +$14 (+57%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 26¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+21%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $16 +$8 +52%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 $0 -15%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $14 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $1 $0 -22%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 23 $12 −$1 -8%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $46 −$1 -2%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 21 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $22 +$17 +76%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $19 −$18 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $49 +$2 +3%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -22%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $44 +$3 +6%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $3 −$1 -37%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $7 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 $0 -17%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $6 $0 -5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $0 $0 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $12 −$1 -6%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY No 90¢ $44 2h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 7h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 12h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 16h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 21h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 34h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? SELL Down 10¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 11¢ $5 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL No 84¢ $14 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 82¢ $14 2d
BNB Up or Down on June 24? SELL Up 10¢ $1 2d
BNB Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 12¢ $1 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 23¢ $11 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $14 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 89¢ $45 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $46 5d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY No 94¢ $38 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 37¢ $9 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $22 6d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $19 7d
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 7d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 8d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 8d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? BUY No 94¢ $44 8d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY No 97¢ $49 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.79 · official $86.79 (match) · 56 history records