Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:14:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DF
0xdf17…97d1
world · 55 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$434,670 +20%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$501,046 · open −$74,165
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Chart Positions 114 History 15 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,556
7 days+$39,148
14 days+$501,046
30 days+$501,046
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 84¢ $125,000 $210,250 +$85,250 (+68%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 72¢ 82¢ $76,259 $87,174 +$10,915 (+14%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 76¢ 81¢ $49,530 $52,916 +$3,386 (+7%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $39,985 $40,764 +$779 (+2%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 16¢ $125,000 $39,750 −$85,250 (-68%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $32,425 $33,127 +$703 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $32,097 $32,384 +$287 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $30,790 $31,317 +$527 (+2%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $27,124 $28,212 +$1,088 (+4%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 37¢ 46¢ $15,179 $19,065 +$3,886 (+26%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 84¢ $18,875 $18,783 −$92 (-0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 94¢ 96¢ $17,872 $18,397 +$524 (+3%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $17,350 $17,783 +$433 (+2%)
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? No 98¢ 99¢ $17,253 $17,509 +$256 (+1%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 81¢ 81¢ $16,278 $16,378 +$100 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 84¢ 82¢ $12,755 $12,474 −$281 (-2%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? No 95¢ 99¢ $10,849 $11,318 +$469 (+4%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 88¢ 97¢ $8,150 $8,949 +$799 (+10%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 84¢ 86¢ $7,109 $7,335 +$226 (+3%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 88¢ 94¢ $5,611 $6,009 +$398 (+7%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 84¢ 90¢ $5,659 $6,004 +$345 (+6%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $5,876 $5,983 +$107 (+2%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 85¢ 97¢ $4,976 $5,706 +$730 (+15%)
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $5,526 $5,624 +$98 (+2%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $4,915 $4,923 +$8 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Australian Open? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $308,431 +$2,539 +1%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Anas Mazdrashki vs David Eichenseher Jun 11 $83 +$17 +20%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $256 +$151 +59%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $4,940 +$60 +1%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $4,945 +$55 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $540 −$540 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1 +$337 +48150%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $20,890 +$252 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 08 $1,942 +$2 +0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $545,481 +$32,101 +6%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 07 $1,820 +$4,174 +229%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $350,000 $0 +0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $1,299 +$2,080 +160%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $362,749 +$459,818 +127%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 45% +$58,280
politics 35% −$79,681
crypto 16% +$459,818
other 5% −$11,979
sports 0% −$83
culture 0% +$527
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 14m
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $100 39m
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $48 1h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? BUY No 87¢ $9 1h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $20 2h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $63 2h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 86¢ $93 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 86¢ $93 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 86¢ $186 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 86¢ $33 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $4 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $0 3h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $10 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $250 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $128 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 61¢ $677 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $480 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 61¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $109 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $250 3h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $450 3h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $440 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 30¢ $300 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $55 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $14 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+135.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +162.9% +137.9% 77% 31% -6.7%
≤30d 15 +160.3% +135.6% 80% 40% +18.7%
≤90d 15 +160.3% +135.6% 80% 40% +18.7%
all 15 +160.3% +135.6% 80% 40% +18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover365.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +135.6% 40% +18.7%
10% +113.0% 33% +7.4%
15% ← realistic here +92.4% 33% -3.0%
20% +73.6% 33% -12.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $779,964.70 · official $779,972.52 (match) · 3500 history records