Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:19:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf18…6240 world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate59%17W / 12L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% +$5
other 13% +$2
politics 5% −$1
tech 2% $0
culture 2% $0
weather 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.1% -7.6% 40% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 11 +1.0% -8.6% 55% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 11 +1.0% -8.6% 55% 0% -8.4%
all 29 -4.1% -13.3% 59% 3% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 3% -8.5%
10% -21.6% 0% -17.2%
15% -29.2% 0% -25.2%
20% -36.1% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.21 per $1 lost it wins $4.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses17 / 12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage461d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 45¢ 48¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $78 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $54 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $42 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $41 +$4 +10%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $18 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $36 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $36 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $4 $0 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 28 $11 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president May 07 $2 −$1 -44%
Will the Liberal Party win by 100–124 seats? Apr 25 $11 $0 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof Apr 24 $8 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 24 $3 $0 -7%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by Friday? Apr 23 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 22 $13 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Apr 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Kentucky win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $11 +$2 +13%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $1 $0 -8%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21? Mar 20 $12 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 45°F or below on March 15? Mar 15 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $46 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $41 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $41 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $35 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $35 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $6 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $36 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $42 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $42 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $31 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $46 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 85¢ $41 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $38 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $20 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $18 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 81¢ $38 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $37 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $18 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $18 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $12 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $24 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $36 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $18 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 8d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.83 · official $45.50 (match) · 95 history records