Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:30:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DF 0xdf1a…bcb6 crypto 1641 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$204 (+1%) realized +$204 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%917W / 634L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day27.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$73
7 days+$555
14 days+$759
30 days+$1,258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$586
other 0% −$20
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 295 +12.0% +1.3% 61% 61% +4.2%
≤30d 1185 +10.2% -0.3% 61% 61% +1.3%
≤90d 1551 +7.7% -2.5% 59% 59% -7.3%
all 1551 +7.7% -2.5% 59% 59% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.5% 59% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -11.9% 59% -16.2%
15% -20.4% 58% -24.3%
20% -28.2% 54% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$15 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$204
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses917 / 634
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1551 / 1641
History coverage61d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day27.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1551 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$14 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$9 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$10 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$10 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$14 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$4 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$9 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$17 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$9 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$5 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$4 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$6 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$11 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$12 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$12 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$7 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$7 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$6 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$6 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$7 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$17 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$7 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$11 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$8 +120%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $18 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $9 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $17 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $9 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $17 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $9 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $7 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $18 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $9 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $18 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $6 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $12 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $13 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $7 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $7 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $7 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $7 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2656 history records