Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:55:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DF 0xdf1c…9111 weather 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%77W / 4L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$4
economics 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 83% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 39 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 76 +0.2% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 81 -0.5% -10.0% 95% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.05 per $1 lost it wins $4.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses77 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage119d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $117 $117 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 23 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $64 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 21? Jun 21 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 20? Jun 20 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 11 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 8? Jun 09 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 7? Jun 08 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 6? Jun 07 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 6? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 5? Jun 06 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 5? Jun 05 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $93 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 1? Jun 01 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 31? Jun 01 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 30? May 31 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on Ma May 30 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 28? May 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 28? May 29 $111 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ma May 28 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 27? May 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 27? May 26 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on May 23? May 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on May 22? May 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 22? May 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C or below on May 20? May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on May 19? May 20 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on May 17? May 17 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C or below on May 16? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on May 14? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on May 13? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C or below on May 12? May 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C or higher on May 10? May 11 $74 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $117 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $117 29h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $64 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $117 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $117 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $117 5d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $100 7d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $117 8d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $116 9d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $116 9d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $117 10d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $22 11d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $96 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $116 12d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $116 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $96 14d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $15 14d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $5 14d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $116 14d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $116 15d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $115 16d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $110 17d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $5 17d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $115 17d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $115 18d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $114 19d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $114 20d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $93 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.21 · official $117.21 (match) · 165 history records