Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:09:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf23…5474 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$2
other 25% −$3
sports 11% +$1
politics 8% +$1
weather 7% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -0.4% -9.9% 38% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 8 -0.4% -9.9% 38% 0% -10.0%
all 32 -6.0% -14.9% 44% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 0% -9.9%
10% -23.1% 0% -18.5%
15% -30.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -37.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage477d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $32 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $32 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $16 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $32 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 28 $34 −$2 -5%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 16 $2 $0 -4%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 27 $12 −$1 -5%
Will Israel raid Greta Thunberg's ship by Friday? Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 06 $2 $0 +3%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Apr 29 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian Apr 29 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 28 $15 $0 +0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 28 $15 +$1 +3%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $15 $0 -0%
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April? Mar 29 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 27? Mar 28 $8 $0 +3%
Will Kentucky win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $7 $0 -1%
Eric Adams out as NYC mayor by March 31? Mar 27 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on March 25? Mar 26 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or higher on March 22? Mar 24 $15 $0 +1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Mar 22 $14 +$1 +7%
SE Louisiana vs. UT Rio Grande Valley Mar 03 $14 $0 +0%
Predators vs. Bruins Mar 03 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 1h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $35 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $15 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $18 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $33 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $36 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $36 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $28 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $32 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $23 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $9 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $32 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $16 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $23 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $9 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $32 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 62¢ $32 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 65¢ $34 25d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $2 341d
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2 360d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 SELL No 85¢ $11 360d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 96¢ $2 361d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 BUY No 90¢ $12 381d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $11 381d
Will Israel raid Greta Thunberg's ship by Friday? BUY No 99¢ $1 382d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $11 382d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.00 · official $29.00 (match) · 80 history records