Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:46:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DF 0xdf24…5a24 other 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 614d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$39 (-8%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +41% what you keep after slip
Net edge+41%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 614d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$2
politics 29% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +66.1% +50.3% 33% 33% -37.1%
≤30d 3 +66.1% +50.3% 33% 33% -37.1%
≤90d 3 +66.1% +50.3% 33% 33% -37.1%
all 4 +56.0% +41.1% 50% 50% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +41.1% 50% -25.1%
10% +27.6% 50% -32.3%
15% +15.3% 25% -38.8%
20% +4.0% 25% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$43 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage614d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Jun 20 $72 −$72 -100%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $153 −$14 -9%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$16 +307%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $72 +$18 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 28m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $139 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $18 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $34 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL No 70¢ $90 591d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY No 55¢ $72 593d
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? BUY Yes 67¢ $72 613d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.20 · official $200.20 (match) · 12 history records