Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:13:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf25…db12 politics 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 298d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate44%15W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% +$1
world 29% −$2
sports 11% +$1
crypto 8% $0
other 8% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 9 -2.1% -11.4% 33% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 9 -2.1% -11.4% 33% 0% -10.5%
all 34 +0.1% -9.5% 44% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 3% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

298d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage298d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 27 $16 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $8 $0 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $35 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $37 −$1 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $1 $0 -12%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 21 $16 −$1 -9%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Dec 19 $71 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $37 +$1 +2%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 08 $38 −$1 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 07 $37 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 06 $5 $0 +3%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 06 $42 +$1 +3%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 15 $4 $0 -3%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 08 $22 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 28 $2 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Aug 28 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 28 $17 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? Aug 28 $3 +$1 +18%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Aug 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Aug 27 $19 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 27 $18 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 25 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 360–374 times August 22–August 29? Aug 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 25 $34 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $33 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $33 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $12 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $12 34h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $7 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $8 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $16 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 77¢ $4 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 77¢ $5 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 74¢ $8 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 90¢ $12 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 90¢ $21 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 89¢ $32 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $36 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $37 25d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $13 26d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $15 26d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $6 26d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $34 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 2¢ $0 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 2¢ $1 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 2¢ $1 26d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 28d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 28d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 28d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 28d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 28d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $16 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 172 history records