Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:24:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DF 0xdf27…026f sports 938 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$27,946 (+6%) realized +$27,894 · open +$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate74%686W / 247L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$497per market
Trades / day39.9pace
Fees−$3,196est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$492now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$708
7 days+$1,382
14 days+$4,757
30 days+$11,422
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$27,579
weather 16% −$19
other 15% −$91
world 1% +$3
politics 1% −$136
tech 0% −$365
finance 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 -0.6% -10.0% 71% 56% -7.0%
≤30d 490 +1.7% -8.0% 72% 57% -5.4%
≤90d 933 +5.4% -4.6% 74% 53% -4.2%
all 933 +5.4% -4.6% 74% 53% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 53% -4.2%
10% ← realistic here -13.8% 45% -13.4%
15% -22.1% 36% -21.8%
20% -29.7% 26% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$158 vs −$329 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$492
Realized+$27,894
Unrealized+$52
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses686 / 247
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$3,196
Open positions5
Markets (closed)933 / 938
History coverage67d ⚠
Avg bet$497
Trades / day39.9
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 933 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Aurora Gaming 60¢ 100¢ $150 $250 +$100 (+67%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Over 80¢ 80¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 76¢ $75 $76 +$0 (+1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 68¢ $71 $68 −$4 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner FURIA 64¢ 20¢ $64 $20 −$44 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 204 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $650 +$354 +54%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $60 +$40 +67%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $222 −$222 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $58 +$42 +72%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $78 +$22 +29%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor Jun 18 $258 +$17 +6%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $73 +$27 +37%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $73 +$27 +38%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $81 +$19 +24%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $79 +$21 +27%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $69 −$68 -99%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $318 +$32 +10%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $90 +$10 +11%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $162 +$87 +54%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $61 +$39 +65%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $65 +$35 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $74 +$26 +36%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $93 +$7 +7%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $218 +$82 +38%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $82 +$18 +21%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $87 +$13 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $338 +$162 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $79 +$21 +26%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $175 −$175 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $64 +$36 +55%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $58 −$58 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $68 +$33 +48%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 16 $900 +$100 +11%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $750 +$250 +33%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $1,693 +$771 +46%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $147 +$102 +70%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $736 −$736 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $155 −$155 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $73 +$27 +38%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $92 +$8 +8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $77 +$23 +31%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $93 +$7 +7%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $290 +$210 +72%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $142 +$108 +76%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,175 +$525 +45%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $134 −$133 -99%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $175 +$25 +14%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $70 −$69 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $46 +$54 +116%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $83 +$17 +20%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $201 +$21 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 64¢ $65 56m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $80 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $76 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $72 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 60¢ $150 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $51 3h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 65¢ $55 5h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 65¢ $259 5h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 64¢ $9 5h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 64¢ $53 5h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 64¢ $2 5h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 64¢ $271 5h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 44¢ $44 7h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 44¢ $22 7h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 44¢ $45 7h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 45¢ $112 7h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 59¢ $59 8h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 60¢ $2 10h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 60¢ $2 10h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 60¢ $0 10h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 60¢ $2 10h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 60¢ $2 10h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 60¢ $2 10h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 60¢ $2 10h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 60¢ $2 10h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 60¢ $2 10h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 60¢ $2 10h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 60¢ $2 10h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 60¢ $2 10h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 60¢ $2 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $491.88 · official $492.88 (match) · 3478 history records