Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:02:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DF 0xdf29…60e6 other 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-0%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 98L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$264per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$54
politics 17% −$6
economics 6% −$2
sports 6% +$19
tech 5% −$1
culture 2% −$1
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +17.4% +6.2% 17% 17% -8.2%
≤30d 18 +5.7% -4.3% 11% 6% -9.1%
≤90d 109 -2.1% -11.4% 10% 7% -9.7%
all 109 -2.1% -11.4% 10% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 7% -9.7%
10% -19.9% 7% -18.3%
15% -27.6% 7% -26.2%
20% -34.7% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×5.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage89d
Avg bet$264
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $153 $153 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $291 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $15 +$15 +105%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $260 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $323 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $36 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $289 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $59 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $54 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $36 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $299 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $50 $0 -0%
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $44 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 02 $94 $0 +0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $39 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $45 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $652 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $257 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $784 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 16 $252 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 14 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $258 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $754 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $258 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $256 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $262 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 05 $267 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $272 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $273 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $252 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 01 $253 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $260 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 29 $263 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Apr 28 $273 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 24 $276 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $272 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $781 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $258 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $519 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $262 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $261 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $269 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $765 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 1h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 2h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 24h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 48¢ $15 27h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 29h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $55 43h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 2d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 2d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 3d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 3d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 4d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $153 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 8d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $59 8d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $59 8d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 9d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 9d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 10d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 10d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $50 13d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 13d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 14d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 14d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 15d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $50 16d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $44 16d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 17d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $39 18d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.99 · official $152.99 (match) · 309 history records