Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:41:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DF 0xdf29…a37d politics 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 660d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$678per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 86% −$19
crypto 5% +$4
tech 5% +$22
other 4% +$12
economics 1% $0
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 2 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 26 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 4% -9.4%
10% -17.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

660d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage660d
Avg bet$678
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 29 $38 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? May 04 $38 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 23 $14,813 −$15 -0%
Will Solana reach $190 in February? Mar 23 $321 +$1 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 13 $202 +$11 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Jan 24 $288 +$1 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 15 $236 +$2 +1%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 03 $322 +$16 +5%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Nov 28 $660 +$8 +1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 13 $135 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Nov 06 $9 +$2 +19%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Sep 22 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Dec 14 $16 $0 +1%
Will a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? Sep 24 $253 −$3 -1%
Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Sep 24 $89 $0 -0%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Sep 23 $80 −$2 -2%
Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024? Sep 23 $85 $0 -0%
2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, D House Sep 22 $85 −$1 -1%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 22 $172 −$2 -1%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Sep 18 $90 $0 -0%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+ Sep 16 $163 $0 -0%
Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024? Sep 11 $25 −$1 -2%
Will Kamala Harris drop out of presidential race? Sep 11 $26 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Sep 11 $27 $0 -0%
Ethena USDe flips USDC market cap in 2024? Sep 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will People’s Republic of China win the most gold medals at the 2024 P Sep 11 $37 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $38 56d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 98d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $14,798 98d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14,813 98d
Will Solana reach $190 in February? BUY No 100¢ $321 136d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $289 156d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $202 165d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $288 165d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $236 188d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? SELL Yes 97¢ $182 208d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem SELL Yes 100¢ $321 212d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? BUY Yes 87¢ $54 225d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? BUY Yes 87¢ $110 225d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 58¢ $135 228d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 58¢ $135 230d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem BUY Yes 96¢ $308 232d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? SELL Yes 87¢ $82 233d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem SELL Yes 96¢ $348 233d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? BUY Yes 87¢ $82 234d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? SELL Yes 87¢ $63 234d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? BUY Yes 87¢ $28 234d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? BUY Yes 87¢ $34 234d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem BUY Yes 98¢ $353 235d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 94¢ $11 235d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 79¢ $9 249d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? SELL Yes 79¢ $12 250d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? BUY Yes 94¢ $14 280d
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? BUY Yes 95¢ $13 458d
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? SELL No 99¢ $16 562d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.98 · official $38.98 (match) · 88 history records