Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:35:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf2d…9514 crypto 719 markets active 13h ago coverage 341d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$202 (-8%) realized −$202 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate38%274W / 445L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$46
14 days−$71
30 days−$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$263
other 2% −$13
politics 1% −$28
sports 0% −$6
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -62.0% -65.6% 20% 17% -57.3%
≤30d 138 -51.9% -56.5% 22% 20% -52.6%
≤90d 621 -20.4% -28.0% 37% 28% -19.9%
all 719 -20.5% -28.1% 38% 28% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 28% -20.7%
10% -34.9% 21% -28.3%
15% -41.2% 16% -35.2%
20% -47.0% 13% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

341d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$202
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses274 / 445
Open positions0
Markets (closed)719 / 719
History coverage341d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 719 Trades
no open positions (152 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -80%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$2 -32%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -16%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$5 +156%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -16%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -31%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$3 +313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 05 $3 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$1 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $10 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $9 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2356 history records