Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:42:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DF
0xdf36…b999
other · 14 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$58 -61%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$59 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$5
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage22d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%
Chart Positions 4 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Yes 41¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $5 $0 -6%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $10 −$7 -70%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $5 +$4 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 59% −$51
other 29% −$8
sports 12% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 47¢ $4 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 46¢ $5 20d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 20d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 20d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 20d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 20d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Mumbai Indians 42¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 20d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings SELL Punjab Kings 100¢ $9 21d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings BUY Punjab Kings 53¢ $5 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-47.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -39.9% -45.6% 40% 40% -11.8%
≤30d 10 -41.9% -47.5% 30% 30% -73.9%
≤90d 10 -41.9% -47.5% 30% 30% -73.9%
all 10 -41.9% -47.5% 30% 30% -73.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.5% 30% -73.9%
10% -52.5% 30% -76.4%
15% -57.1% 30% -78.7%
20% -61.3% 20% -80.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 27 history records