Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:32:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DF
0xdf39…f536
crypto · 225 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$883 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$926 · open −$43
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$57
Realized+$926
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses106 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)224 / 225
History coverage68d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 224 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$134
7 days−$232
14 days−$337
30 days+$701
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 43¢ 24¢ $100 $57 −$43 (-43%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $130 −$104 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $155 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $237 −$23 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $153 +$84 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$9 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$9 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $129 +$89 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $232 −$138 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $158 −$13 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $87 −$84 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $91 −$88 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $108 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $129 −$50 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $78 +$75 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $154 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $129 −$75 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $130 −$36 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $128 −$31 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $153 +$28 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $506 +$97 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $77 +$49 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$16 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $232 +$74 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $53 +$81 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $180 +$34 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $205 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $537 +$50 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $306 +$60 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $104 −$50 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $313 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $56 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $129 +$60 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $78 −$73 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $585 +$143 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $130 −$25 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $310 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$37 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $810 +$511 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $103 +$51 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $177 +$37 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $357 −$350 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $78 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $510 +$74 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $179 +$81 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $159 −$105 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $154 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $108 −$2 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 93% −$56
world 5% +$1,106
politics 1% +$33
sports 1% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $26 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $104 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $48 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $7 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $219 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $37 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $17 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $44 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $218 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 56m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 161 -25.0% -32.1% 50% 42% -9.7%
≤30d 213 -11.6% -20.0% 47% 39% -8.2%
≤90d 224 -11.4% -19.8% 47% 39% -7.5%
all 224 -11.4% -19.8% 47% 39% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 39% -7.5%
10% -27.5% 28% -16.3%
15% -34.5% 17% -24.4%
20% -40.9% 10% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.98 · official $56.98 (match) · 1227 history records