Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:51:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdf3a…ee18 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$52 (-11%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate88%7W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$49
14 days−$49
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% −$88
other 32% +$28
sports 12% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +12.3% +1.6% 86% 57% -24.3%
≤30d 8 +10.8% +0.3% 88% 50% -18.9%
≤90d 8 +10.8% +0.3% 88% 50% -18.9%
all 8 +10.8% +0.3% 88% 50% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.3% 50% -18.9%
10% -9.3% 25% -26.7%
15% -18.1% 25% -33.8%
20% -26.1% 12% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$89 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage15d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$10 +10%
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? Jun 22 $26 +$10 +40%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 +$14 +92%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $28 +$2 +6%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $19 +$3 +17%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $98 −$89 -91%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $159 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $49 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $37 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $37 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $37 2h
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? BUY Yes 71¢ $26 10h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 43¢ $26 10h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $29 13h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 42¢ $29 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 24h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 26h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $15 26h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $13 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 65¢ $13 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $10 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 28h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 34¢ $10 28h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 28h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 2¢ $9 28h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 16¢ $18 13d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 13d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 16¢ $50 13d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 86¢ $12 14d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 86¢ $43 14d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 86¢ $43 14d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 64¢ $62 14d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 63¢ $62 14d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 81¢ $97 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records