Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:40:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DF
0xdf3b…880a
crypto · 148 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$229 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$229 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$229
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses96 / 52
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)148 / 148
History coverage95d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 148 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$57
14 days−$42
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$7 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $19 +$14 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $22 −$19 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$7 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$12 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$8 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $14 +$8 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $22 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 09 $11 +$9 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 09 $7 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 09 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 08 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 08 $7 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 08 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 08 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 08 $6 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 08 $6 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $19 −$14 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 51% −$116
crypto 49% −$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $7 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $7 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $8 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $8 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $8 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $7 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $7 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $7 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $7 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $7 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $4 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -16.6% -24.6% 52% 52% -20.6%
≤30d 88 -7.7% -16.5% 55% 49% -17.4%
≤90d 132 -7.0% -15.8% 64% 38% -17.6%
all 148 -6.0% -15.0% 65% 37% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 37% -16.3%
10% -23.1% 30% -24.3%
15% -30.5% 26% -31.6%
20% -37.3% 19% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 732 history records