Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:43:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DF
0xdf3c…1bda
sports · 96 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$1,124 +59%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,116 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Net worth$7
Realized+$1,116
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses62 / 28
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions6
Markets (closed)90 / 96
History coverage64d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 6 History 90 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Dalma Galfi 26¢ 28¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 48¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Ben Shelton 48¢ 69¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+45%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Ella Seidel 20¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinina Lulu Sun 32¢ 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-64%)
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Anna Bondar 38¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Sentinels (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega 100 Thieves 66¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. Samsung Lions Samsung Lions 55¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Up 51¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will El Mokawloon El Arab SC win on 2026-04-13? Yes 49¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Atlas FC vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw? No 73¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins 61¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Valorant: NRG vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega NRG 67¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef Celine Naef 27¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-04-25? Yes 50¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-04-11? No 63¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Up 32¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels Chicago White Sox 50¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
AHL: Utica Comets vs. Belleville Senators Belleville Senators 52¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-04-22? Yes 46¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 46¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Valorant: Cloud9 vs Team Envy (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha Cloud9 69¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Natus Vincere 78¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will FC Groningen win on 2026-04-11? Yes 57¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Up 46¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Maxwell Mckennon Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
ITF Monastir: Dominick Mosejczuk vs Cesar Bouchelaghem Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
76ers vs. Knicks Jun 14 $2 +$1 +38%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 14 $3 +$1 +17%
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 14 $5 +$6 +127%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels May 05 $11 −$11 -98%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-04-24? May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Madrid Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alex de Minaur May 05 $1 $0 +5%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-04-24? May 05 $1 $0 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $695 on April 24? May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-04-25? May 05 $1 $0 +18%
Madrid Open: Jessica Pegula vs Katie Boulter May 05 $1 $0 +16%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25? May 05 $1 $0 +27%
Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-04-25? May 05 $2 +$1 +52%
Avalanche vs. Kings May 05 $103 +$67 +65%
Will Eyüpspor win on 2026-04-25? Apr 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Madrid Open: Caty McNally vs Victoria Mboko Apr 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Houston Dynamo vs. San Diego FC end in a draw? Apr 23 $1 $0 +31%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $2 +$1 +48%
Will FC Dallas win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $2 +$2 +86%
Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 22 $1 $0 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 22 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 22 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 22 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - April 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 22 $1 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 22 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 22 $1 +$1 +79%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Lotte Giants Apr 22 $1 +$1 +70%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - April 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Sentinels (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Apr 19 $2 −$2 -99%
Valorant: NRG vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega Apr 19 $2 −$2 -99%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. KT Wiz Apr 19 $1 +$2 +180%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros Apr 19 $6 +$7 +114%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Samsung Lions Apr 18 $1 −$1 -99%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Doosan Bears Apr 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins Apr 17 $8 −$8 -100%
KCC Egis vs. Wonju DB Promy Apr 17 $1 +$1 +50%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 17 $7 +$6 +83%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Apr 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Valorant: Cloud9 vs Team Envy (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha Apr 16 $1 −$1 -99%
KHL: Torpedo vs. Metallurg Magnitogorsk Apr 16 $1 $0 +0%
AHL: Bridgeport Islanders vs. Hartford Wolf Pack Apr 16 $1 +$1 +83%
Goyang vs. Seoul Knights Apr 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 76% +$1,091
crypto 22% +$20
other 2% +$4
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Monastir: Dominick Mosejczuk vs Cesar Bouchelaghem BUY Cesar Bouchelaghem 100¢ $1 1h
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Maxwell Mckennon BUY Ivan Marrero Curbelo 93¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel BUY Ella Seidel 20¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Dalma Galfi 26¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin BUY Lulu Sun 32¢ $1 1h
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef BUY Celine Naef 27¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Bondar 38¢ $1 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 48¢ $2 1h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 48¢ $1 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Atlanta Braves 44¢ $5 39d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 85¢ $3 39d
76ers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 72¢ $2 39d
Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Chicago White Sox 50¢ $11 39d
Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 65¢ $2 50d
Will Eyüpspor win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 63¢ $2 50d
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 50d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 50d
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 84¢ $1 50d
Madrid Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alex de Minaur BUY Rafael Jodar 95¢ $1 50d
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-04-24? BUY No 98¢ $1 50d
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-04-24? BUY No 100¢ $1 50d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $695 on April 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 50d
Avalanche vs. Kings BUY Avalanche 60¢ $103 51d
Madrid Open: Jessica Pegula vs Katie Boulter BUY Jessica Pegula 86¢ $1 51d
Madrid Open: Caty McNally vs Victoria Mboko BUY Victoria Mboko 75¢ $1 51d
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 52d
Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 52d
Will FC Dallas win on 2026-04-22? BUY No 53¢ $2 52d
Will Houston Dynamo vs. San Diego FC end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $1 52d
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +14.9% +4.0% 83% 50% +31.5%
≤30d 6 +14.9% +4.0% 83% 50% +31.5%
≤90d 90 -2.9% -12.1% 69% 40% +44.0%
all 90 -2.9% -12.1% 69% 40% +44.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 40% +44.0%
10% -20.5% 33% +30.2%
15% -28.2% 29% +17.6%
20% -35.2% 21% +6.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.42 · official $7.42 (match) · 238 history records