Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:48:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DF 0xdf3d…1a59 sports 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$27 (-4%) realized +$23 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate100%9W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +4.4% -5.5% 100% 11% -5.9%
≤30d 9 +4.4% -5.5% 100% 11% -5.9%
≤90d 9 +4.4% -5.5% 100% 11% -5.9%
all 9 +4.4% -5.5% 100% 11% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 11% -5.9%
10% -14.6% 0% -14.9%
15% -22.8% 0% -23.2%
20% -30.4% 0% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses9 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume Himeno Sakatsume 88¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Jun 23 $50 +$3 +6%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Priscilla Hon vs Nao Hibino Jun 23 $50 +$3 +5%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 23 $60 +$2 +3%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Amelia Rajecki vs Suzan Lamens Jun 23 $57 +$1 +2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally Jun 23 $50 +$7 +15%
Mallorca Championships: Marc Polmans vs Grigor Dimitrov Jun 23 $56 +$2 +3%
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 23 $100 +$2 +2%
Set 1 Winner: Wang vs Fernandez Jun 23 $80 +$2 +2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria Jun 23 $70 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens SELL Naomi Osaka 100¢ $53 0m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Priscilla Hon vs Nao Hibino SELL Nao Hibino 100¢ $53 0m
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens BUY Naomi Osaka 94¢ $50 7m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Priscilla Hon vs Nao Hibino BUY Nao Hibino 95¢ $50 32m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti SELL Lucia Bronzetti 100¢ $62 50m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Amelia Rajecki vs Suzan Lamens SELL Suzan Lamens 100¢ $58 50m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Amelia Rajecki vs Suzan Lamens BUY Suzan Lamens 98¢ $57 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 97¢ $60 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally SELL Caty McNally 100¢ $58 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume BUY Himeno Sakatsume 88¢ $50 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally BUY Caty McNally 87¢ $50 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova SELL Ekaterina Alexandrova 100¢ $102 2h
Mallorca Championships: Marc Polmans vs Grigor Dimitrov BUY Grigor Dimitrov 97¢ $56 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 98¢ $100 2h
Set 1 Winner: Wang vs Fernandez SELL Wang 100¢ $82 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria SELL Tatjana Maria 100¢ $72 3h
Set 1 Winner: Wang vs Fernandez BUY Wang 97¢ $80 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 98¢ $70 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 19 history records