Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DF 0xdf3f…1365 sports 505 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$415 (-1%) realized −$417 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%277W / 212L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day24.3pace
Fees−$702est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,047now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,393
7 days−$2,265
14 days−$1,380
30 days−$957
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$224
other 9% −$358
world 2% +$321
crypto 2% −$488
politics 1% −$137
finance 0% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 139 -9.7% -18.3% 55% 52% -17.5%
≤30d 489 -0.3% -9.8% 57% 55% -10.8%
≤90d 489 -0.3% -9.8% 57% 55% -10.8%
all 489 -0.3% -9.8% 57% 55% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 55% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 49% -19.3%
15% -26.3% 41% -27.1%
20% -33.5% 35% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$106 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$1,047
Realized−$417
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses277 / 212
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$702
Open positions16
Markets (closed)489 / 505
History coverage26d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day24.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 489 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 68¢ 69¢ $110 $112 +$2 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 59¢ 60¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Linda Noskova 60¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House No 65¢ 64¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova Marie Bouzkova 54¢ 52¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 61¢ 56¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 55¢ 54¢ $90 $88 −$2 (-3%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Over 62¢ 46¢ $100 $74 −$26 (-26%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $50 $73 +$23 (+46%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 28¢ 35¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+24%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+32%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+22%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-26%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 177 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $101 +$65 +65%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $878 +$6 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $75 +$70 +93%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 20 $203 −$8 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $200 +$28 +14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 20 $201 +$32 +16%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $361 −$360 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $101 +$31 +31%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $301 +$25 +8%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $101 +$60 +60%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $121 +$41 +34%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $121 +$43 +36%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $2,331 −$1,660 -71%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $76 −$4 -5%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $201 −$2 -1%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $111 −$3 -3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 18 $201 −$1 -1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $91 +$72 +79%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $76 −$6 -8%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $76 −$75 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $302 −$300 -99%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $151 +$55 +36%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $81 −$80 -98%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 18 $121 −$120 -99%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $111 −$96 -86%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $76 −$75 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $151 −$4 -3%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $91 −$90 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $76 +$90 +119%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $201 +$34 +17%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 18 $76 +$83 +109%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 −$3 -3%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $157 +$107 +68%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 18 $200 +$13 +6%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$68 +67%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $899 +$271 +30%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $172 +$58 +34%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $201 +$27 +13%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $76 +$83 +109%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $76 −$75 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $201 +$24 +12%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $131 +$32 +24%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $201 +$32 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Linda Noskova 60¢ $101 29m
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova BUY Marie Bouzkova 54¢ $101 29m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 59¢ $101 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 68¢ $111 2h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Minnesota Twins 8¢ $14 3h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 92¢ $802 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $145 3h
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 60¢ $195 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $228 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $233 3h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 95¢ $361 4h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $101 4h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 92¢ $301 6h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 76¢ $101 6h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 41¢ $76 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 74¢ $60 37h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 67¢ $1,515 37h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 66¢ $101 37h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 46¢ $72 37h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 82¢ $199 37h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL No 70¢ $107 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $199 37h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 24¢ $206 37h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL Scotland 39¢ $71 38h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 41¢ $76 38h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 47¢ $76 39h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $302 39h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $504 39h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 73¢ $151 42h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $81 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,046.89 · official $1,046.95 (match) · 934 history records